sga gaming State of the Race: A Big Week in News, but a Quiet One in Polling

With four weeks to go until the electionsga gaming, the race for the White House is as tight as it’s been for the last two weeks.

The New York Times polling average shows Kamala Harris and Donald J. Trump essentially tied across the seven battleground states considered likeliest to decide the presidency, with neither ahead by enough to count as even a modest favorite.

New York Times swing state polling averages Wisconsin › Harris +2 Oct. 40% 50% 48% 50% Michigan › Harris +2 40% 50% 47% 49% Pennsylvania › Harris <1 Oct. 40% 50% 48% 49% Nevada › Harris +1 40% 50% 48% 49% Georgia › Trump +1 Oct. 40% 50% 48% 49% North Carolina › Trump <1 40% 50% 48% 49% Arizona › Trump +2 Oct. 40% 50% 47% 49%

By The New York Times

In state after state, the average is essentially unchanged after a newsy week that included the vice-presidential debate, the new jobs report and Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah’s leader.

In today’s polarized country, it’s not necessarily surprising when the news doesn’t affect the numbers. This week, though, there was a different reason the polls didn’t seem to budge at all: There just weren’t many of them.

Even if these events did affect the race, there probably hasn’t been an opportunity for the polls to show it.

Polling Leader If Polls miss like they did in … 2022 2020 U.S. National +3 Harris +2 Harris +1 Trump Wis. Wisconsin +2 Harris +4 Harris +7 Trump Mich. Michigan +1 Harris +7 Harris +4 Trump Nev. Nevada +1 Harris +3 Harris +2 Trump Pa. Pennsylvania +1 Harris +6 Harris +3 Trump N.C. North Carolina +1 Trump <1 Harris +4 Trump Ga. Georgia +2 Trump +2 Trump +3 Trump Ariz. Arizona +2 Trump +1 Harris +4 Trump Includes polling as of Oct. 6. See the latest polling averages »

Electoral votes counting only states where a candidate leads by 3 or more:

226 Harris 219 Trump

Electoral votes if current polling translates perfectly to results (it won’t):

276 Harris 262 Trump

Electoral votes if state polls miss in the same way they did in 2020:

226 Harris 312 Trump

Electoral votes if state polls miss in the same way they did in 2022:

303 Harris 235 Trump Includes polling as of Oct. 6. See the latest polling averages »

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