betfil How One Polling Decision Is Leading to Two Distinct Stories of the Election
Updated:2024-10-09 08:00 Views:56Image
Over the last monthbetfil, one methodological decision seems to have produced two parallel universes of political polling.
In one universe, Kamala Harris leads only narrowly in the national popular vote against Donald J. Trump, even as she holds a discernible edge in the Northern battlegrounds. The numbers look surprisingly similar to the 2022 midterm election.
In the other, Ms. Harris has a clear lead in the national vote, but the battlegrounds are very tight. It’s essentially a repeat of the 2020 election.
This divide is almost entirely explained by whether a pollster uses “weighting on recalled vote,” which means trying to account for how voters say they voted in the last election.
Here’s how it works. First, the pollster asks respondents whether they voted for Joe Biden or Mr. Trump in the last election. Then they use a statistical technique called weighting, in which pollsters give more or less “weight” to respondents from different demographic groups, such that each group represents its actual share of the population. In this case, the pollster weights the number of Biden ’20 or Trump ’20 voters to match the outcome of the last election.
This approach had long been considered a mistake. For reasons we’ll explain, pollsters have avoided it over the years. But they increasingly do it today, partly as a way to try to make sure they have enough Trump supporters after high-profile polling misfires in 2016 and 2020. The choice has become an important fault line among pollsters in this election, and it helps explain the whiplash that poll watchers are experiencing from day to day.
2024 polling averages and 2020 results
Polls that weight
on recalled vote
Polls that
do not
2020
result
U.S.
+4 Harris
+2 Harris
+4 Biden
Mich.
+2 Harris
+3 Harris
+3 Biden
Nev.
+1 Harris
+1 Harris
+2 Biden
Pa.
+1 Harris
+2 Harris
+1 Biden
Wis.
+1 Harris
+2 Harris
Ariz.
+1 Trump
+2 Trump
Ga.
+1 Trump
+3 Trump
N.C.
+1 Trump
2024 polling averages and 2020 results
Polls that weight
on recalled vote
Polls that
do not
2020
result
U.S.
+4 Harris
+2 Harris
+4 Biden
Michigan
+2 Harris
+3 Harris
+3 Biden
Nevada
+1 Harris
+1 Harris
+2 Biden
Pennsylvania
+1 Harris
+2 Harris
+1 Biden
Wisconsin
+1 Harris
+2 Harris
Arizona
+1 Trump
+2 Trump
Georgia
+1 Trump
+3 Trump
North Carolina
+1 Trump
\n\n",mediaComponent:"Graphic"},maxWidth:"body",marginInline:true,marginBlock:true}}],theme:"news",sheets:{}},"uses":{"url":1}}]; Promise.all([ import("https://static01.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2024-10-04-recalled-vote/661c245c-8a52-4a4d-b189-ce7fca632df8/_assets/_app/immutable/entry/start.BTYA3h_T.js"), import("https://static01.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2024-10-04-recalled-vote/661c245c-8a52-4a4d-b189-ce7fca632df8/_assets/_app/immutable/entry/app.Ct91Aodn.js") ]).then(([kit, app]) => { kit.start(app, element, { node_ids: [0, 2], data, form: null, error: null, params: {}, route: {"id":"/current"} }); }); }
Polling misses in presidential elections
Actual
polling miss
If polls had been weighted
using “recalled vote”
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
Average
0
2 pts.
4 pts.
6 pts.
8 pts.
Polling misses in presidential elections
Actual
polling miss
If polls had been weighted
using “recalled vote”
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
Average
0
2 pts.
4 pts.
6 pts.
8 pts.
\n\n",mediaComponent:"Graphic"},maxWidth:"body",marginInline:true,marginBlock:true}}],theme:"news",sheets:{}},"uses":{"url":1}}]; Promise.all([ import("https://static01.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2024-10-04-recalled-vote/661c245c-8a52-4a4d-b189-ce7fca632df8/_assets/_app/immutable/entry/start.BTYA3h_T.js"), import("https://static01.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2024-10-04-recalled-vote/661c245c-8a52-4a4d-b189-ce7fca632df8/_assets/_app/immutable/entry/app.Ct91Aodn.js") ]).then(([kit, app]) => { kit.start(app, element, { node_ids: [0, 4], data, form: null, error: null, params: {}, route: {"id":"/unskew"} }); }); }Source: Upshot analysis of polls from 2004 to 2020 archived at the Roper Center
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