dct casino Republicans’ Electoral College Edge, Once Seen as Ironclad, Looks to Be Fading
Updated:2024-09-27 14:16 Views:96
Ever since Donald J. Trump’s stunning victory in 2016 — when he lost the popular vote by almost three million votes but still triumphed with over 300 electoral votes — many who follow politics have believed Republicans hold an intractable advantage in the Electoral College.dct casino
But there’s growing evidence to support a surprising possibility: His once formidable advantage in the Electoral College is not as ironclad as many presumed. Instead, it might be shrinking.
A Shrinking Advantage
If polling trends hold, the Republican advantage in the Electoral College will be at its lowest level in a decade.
National
vote
‘Tipping-point’
state
Electoral College
advantage
Election
2016
D +2.1
R +0.8
R +2.9
2020
D +4.5
D +0.6
R +3.8
D +2.6
D +1.8
R +0.7
2024
(polls)
Figures are rounded.
A Shrinking Advantage
If polling trends hold, the Republican advantage in the Electoral College will be at its lowest level in a decade.
National
vote
‘Tipping-point’
state
Electoral College
advantage
Election
2016
D +2.1
R +0.8
R +2.9
2020
D +4.5
D +0.6
R +3.8
D +2.6
D +1.8
R +0.7
2024
(polls)
Figures are rounded.
Republicans’ Electoral College Edge, Once Seen as Ironclad, Looks to Be Fading - The New York TimesAccording to The New York Times’s polling average, it does not seem that Kamala Harris will necessarily need to win the popular vote by much to prevail.
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SKIP ADVERTISEMENTThe simplest way to measure the advantage in the Electoral College is to take the difference between the national popular vote and the vote in the “tipping-point” state (the state that puts one candidate over the top in the Electoral College). Right now, Vice President Harris leads the polling in the national vote by 2.6 percentage points, and leads Wisconsin — the current tipping-point state — by 1.8 points, which makes Mr. Trump’s advantage less than a point.
By this measure, Mr. Trump’s advantage is only around one-fifth as large as it was four years ago, when President Biden fared 3.8 points better nationally than in Wisconsin (the tipping-point state in 2020).
Republicans’ 2022 Gains
Look as if They’re Still Holding
Donald Trump is polling best in places Republicans made gains in 2022. Most of these places are outside the presidential battleground states.
In places Republicans
gained in 2022 by ...
... Trump is polling ahead of his
2020 levels by this much:
10 pts.
10+ pts.
6 to 10 pts.
9 pts.
3 to 6 pts.
5 pts.
Less than 3 pts.
3 pts.
Republicans’ 2022 Gains Look as if They’re Still Holding
Donald Trump is polling best in places Republicans made gains in 2022. Most of these places are outside the presidential battleground states.
In places Republicans
gained in 2022 by ...
... Trump is polling ahead of his
2020 levels by this much:
10+ pts.
10 pts.
6 to 10 pts.
9 pts.
3 to 6 pts.
5 pts.
Less than 3 pts.
3 pts.
Based on a compilation of 11,087 respondents to New York Times/Siena College national surveys from Dec. 2023 to Sept. 2024, including when Joe Biden was in the race.
Subscribe to The Times to read as many articles as you like.dct casino
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